Michael Schulz
Please see powerpoint posted at:
http://kursportal.student.gu.se/inst/S2GLS%7C_%7CNONE/RS2235/filuppladdning/browse2.php?dir=Kursmoment%2FLecture+notes+and+ppt
Opening Note
- In previous lectures, we discussed the first intifada and its impact on society and desires for peace.
- Today, we will begin with the 1990s when parties were closest to peace.
- Today, we will also lift forward some Track II concepts and take about why parties have lost faith in the Track II approach.
1990-1991
- The Cold War was over and a new geopolitical order emerged.
- The Gulf War
- 1991, Madrid Conference
● Bilateral talks occur per the wishes of the Israeli government with the goal of finding a political solution.
● Multilateral talks occur per the wishes of the Arab governments with the goal of discussing major issues including the refugee problem, water, etc. These issues concerned all parties.
● Israel, Likud government: "Facts on the ground"
● Shamir: I will negotiate toughly and pursue "facts on the ground"
● Unfortunately, Shamir was not ready for peace and was, at best, willing to give Palestinians limited autonmy which he and Rabin has offered Palestinians in 1989.
● The concept of "Gaza First" was first presented at the Madrid Conference. Gaza was a big problem for the Israelis due to its high population density, it was the place that the first intifada erupted, it had/ has high unemployment, and Israel was dependent upon day labor from its residents.
● Ultimately, the negotiated were stalled and no Israeli-Palestinian deal was reached.
The Early 1990s
- Shamir wanted to build settlements in the West Bank to accomodate immigrants from the former USSR.
- However, these immigrants were not willing to live in a conflict zone.
- The US repsonded critically to plans for further settlement.
- In 1992, the election went to Rabin.
- In 1992, Rabin had a direct confrontation with Hamas (a newly emerging political force)
● A young Israeli girl was killed.
● Rabin sent Hamas leaders to southern Lebanon.
● Sending leaders to southern Lebanon was a grave error because Hamas leaders were trained in suicide bombing techniques by Hezbollah.
- After his election, Rabin pursued peace with Syria.
● Rabin asked a US mediator to offer Syria the Golan Heights but it didn't work due to a miscommunication. As a result, Israel did not believe that the US was a serious broker.
- Rabin also pursued negotiations with Palestinians.
Oslo Negotiations
- These negotiations were conducted in secret on a small scale with Track II participants.
- One of the principle aims was the breakdown of enemy images.
- Gaza First was proposed at the beginning of negotiations.
- Rabin did not know about Oslo.
● He was initially furious when he learned about the secret negotiations but he soon realized that it was the only viable track left.
Oslo, Declaration of Principles
- Symbolic recognition
- Self-rule during the interim period
- Time schedule of five years with 1999 as the deadline for a final peace agreement
- Difficult issues (such as Jerusalem, refugees, settlements, security, borders, etc.) should be solved later.
-Arafat made too many demands, stifling the process.
- However, both sides agreed to recognize each other as enemies which was significant.
Gaza/ Jeriko "First"
- Gaza/ Jeriko "first", May 1994
- Limited self rule of people not land
- Some sectors
- Palestinian Authority established
- Arafat and the PLO to Gaza, July 1994
- Palestinians allowed to establish a police force which was not a military but resembled one.
The Process
- There was strong grassroots support on both sides.
- But there was also strong and loud opposition/ religious inspired nationalists.
- Hebron Massacre, February 1994
- Hamas "Martyrs", April 1994
● Hamas attacks Israeli civilians for the first time.
- Continued opposition/ violent spoilers
- The mood among negotiators was collegial.
1995, Peace Agreement between Israel and Jordan
- Warm peace
- Still exists
Oslo II, 1995
- This agreement was drafted (signed?) on September 24, 1995.
- The agreement stipulated expanded self-rule for cities in the West Bank.
- As a result of the agreement, most Palestinians came under a different kind of rule.
● The West Bank was divided into Area A (Palestinian cities), Area B (Palestinian villages), and Aread C (Israeli settlement, military areas, and state lands).
- Rabin us assassinated by a right-wing religious extremist.
● He is killed after a peace rally in Tel Aviv.
● Israel is shocked because an Israeli should not kill another Israeli.
- The PLO holds elections in the West Bank in 1996
● International observers thought that the elections were relatively free and fair.
● Arafat won a landslide victory for President, receiving approximately 90% of the vote.
- This was a time period when there was support and euphoria about the peace process.
● Something like 70% of Israelis supported the peace process.
1996, Changing Winds
- Ayash killed by Israel followed by Hamas wave of "martyrs".
- Israeli elections
- Netanyahu elected Prime Minister, advocating peace and security
- Cold peace
- Increased violence
- In September 1996, relations deteriorate.
- Settlement activities
- Palestinian mobility decreases as Israel responds to terrorist attacks by closing points of entry.
- Netanyahu pressures Arafat to control Hamas
1997-2000
- 1997, Hebron
● Netanyahu wanted to renegotiate the Hebron Agreement.
- 1998, Wye River Agreement
● Minor changes to Oslo II
● Increased expansion of settlements
● Trust between parties deteriorates further
- 1997, first debate about corruption in the Palestinian government
- 1999, Labor returns to power in Israel
● Barak becomes Prime Minister
● Netanyahu admits to making mistakes which was a brilliant political move on his part and allowed him to return politics later.
● Barak promises peace within one year
● Barak intiates peace agreement with Syria but no agreement is reached.
- 2000, Camp David (II)
● Barak refuses to meet Arafat and Clinton accepts this.
● Clinton was ill-prepared and had to rely on his advisors.
● Parties spoke about key issues including Jerusalem and settlements.
● Barak offers approximately 94% of the West Bank to Palestinians including 90% of East Jerusalem. Unfortunately, this deal was only offered verbally and was later withdrawn.
● Negotiations broke down and Israelis and Palestinians were furious.
- The al-Aqsa intifada breaks out
● Confrontations occur all over the West Bank and Gaza.
● It is the most violent period to date.
Taba
- Egyptian and Jordanian leaders present.
- Lack of grassroots support on both sides
- A political solution was on the table but could not be signed.
- This was a very complicated period.
- There was increasingly a global consensus on a two state solution.
- George W. Bush accepts a two state solution which is significant because no other president and had done so.
2002, Roadmap to Peace
- Accepted by the UN Security Council
- Leaders from both sides (Palestine and Israel) were pressured to accept
- Track I approach (top-down)
● This is probably why it has not succeeded thus far.
Lingering Questions
- Are approximately 5,000 violent, radical Israeli settlers holding the peace process hostage?
- Can land swaps compensate for areas annexed by Israeli settlers?
- What will be the fate of holy sites?
- Is there a Palestinian right to return?
● Should Palestinians be allowed to return to Israel proper?
● Should those that do not or cannot return be compensated?
● Who is responsible for refugees?
- Can Track II negotiations work?
- Likewise, can secret meetings work?
- Will Israel accept a two state solution?
- How can Israel solve the paradox between the Jewish and democratic nature of the state of Israel while allowing for the return of Palestinian refugees?
- Is a two state solution a step toward a single state?
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